A Statistical Analysis of the Buhari And Jonathan Government By Yakubu Aliyu

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Nigeria real net oil export revenue: 2010-2015 (under President Jonathan)

Oil price $110 per barrel average
Stable oil production at 2.4 million barrels per day

2010-$70 billion
2011-$99 billion
2012-$94 billion
2013-$84 billion
2014-$77 billion
2015-$21 billion (January-May)

Total-$445 billion

Source: OPEC Revenue Fact Sheet and Energy Information Administration (EIA),  a statistical arm of the US Department of Energy for various years; and my estimates.

Outcomes in 5 YEARS:

a) External reserves declined from $47 billion in 2013 to $29 billion in 2015;
b) Savings depleted from $21 billion in 2010 to $2 billion in 2015.
c) Federal  Government borrowed $2 billion to pay salaries.
d) 24 States of the federation bankrupt -could not pay salaries of workers, could not repay debts and other contractual obligations.
e) accumulated arrears of workers salaries and pensions, running into billions of Naira.
f) accumulated contractors debt such that all major construction works stopped.
g) NNPC technically bankrupt.
h) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at its all time low. Declined to $3.1 billion in 2015 from $8.8 billion in 2011
i) Nigeria's Credit Rating downgraded
j) Massive capital flight: industries relocating to neighbouring West African countries.

Nigeria real net oil export revenue: 2015-2017 (under PMB)

Oil price $45 per barrel average
Loss of 1.2 million barrels per day due to disruption by the Niger Delta Avengers

2015-$16 billion (June-December)
2016-$26 billion
2017-$10 billion (January-April)

Total-$52 billion

Outcomes:in 2 YEARS

a) External reserves boosted to $31.22 billion from $29 billion in 2015;
b) Savings increased to $2.29 billion from $2 billion in 2015.
c) Federal  Government stopped borrowing to pay salaries.
d) 24 States of the federation bailed out- to pay salaries of workers, repay debts and other contractual obligations.
e) Settled fully accumulated arrears of workers salaries and pensions, running into billions of Naira.
f)  Settled fully accumulated contractors debt such that all major contractors are now back to site.
g) settled fully oil importers claims amounting to $400 million.
h) NNPC restructured and now solvent and liquid.
i) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) steadily picking up.
j) Agricultural revolution taken off such that we now have small holder farmers millionaires.
k) Looted funds recovered running into trillion Naira mark and ploughed back into the budget.
l)  TSA the plugged loopholes of waste and swindle of public funds, now N4 trillion.
---to mention just a few

Bottom line:

a) Those looking for a magic wand, here it is. Using $52 billion or 12% in TWO years  to achieve what Jonathan could not achieve with $445 billion in FIVE years.

b)  Only an incorrigible hater will say that Nigeria is not making progress under the PMB administration with the acute resource constraint and the multiplying challenges facing the country.

I rest my case. May PMB/PYO succeed.


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